Overview of the SARCOF Forecast
The Nineteenth Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-19) was convened from 26 to 28 August 2015 in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo, by the SADC Climate Services Centre (CSC) to formulate consensus guidance for the 2015/2016 rainfall season over the SADC region. A series of rainfall outlooks covering the period October 2015 to March 2016 was prepared by climate scientists from the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of the SADC region and the SADC CSC.
Four seasonal forecasts were issued at the SARCOF, covering the periods October to December 2015 (figure 1a), November 2015 to January 2016 (figure 1b), December 2015 to February 2016 (figure 1c), and January to March 2016 (figure 1d). According to the SARCOF, the northern part of the SADC region is expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall (light blue colours) throughout the forecast period, while the southern and central parts of the region are expected to receive normal to below-normal rainfall throughout the forecast period. The exceptions are as follows:
1. North-eastern Tanzania was determined to have higher chances of receiving above-normal to normal rainfall in the October-December period, which covers the short Vuli season in the bi-modal parts of Tanzania.
2. Areas in northern and central Madagascar have enhanced chances for above-normal to normal rainfall in January to March.
3. Much of Angola, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe have increased chances of receiving normal to above-normal rainfall during the December-February period.
4. Malawi, northern/central Mozambique, eastern/central Zambia and northern Zimbabwe have greater chances of receiving normal to above-normal rainfall during the January to March period.
The potential impacts of these most likely outcomes need to be considered in the context of normal rainfall amounts, rain bearing systems, soil moisture levels, water availability, grazing conditions, and current food security status in the different areas where the forecast is being applied.