Main Highlights
The Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) forecast of high likelihood of normal- to-below normal forecast over southern half of SADC region in the next cropping season, triggers an alarm bell. This warning will be compounded by the current food deficit resulting from a depressed 2014/15 harvest season that is impacting negatively on most of the food markets in the region, especially by driving prices higher than the normal trend in an analogous period.
The current El Niño event was officially declared in March 2015 and is expected to peak at the end of 2015 and remain active until the first quarter of 2016, therefore influencing most of the agricultural season in this region as depicted in Figure 1. For Southern Africa, this usually means less rainfall in most of the countries but high rainfall in northern Tanzania and DRC. If this is realised, the region could face another poor rainfall season and harvest, which coupled to the eroded productive capacity of vulnerable farming households, the already low regional cereal stocks and high grain prices, would result in significant increase in food and nutrition insecurity in the region.
At the moment the estimated number of food insecure people in the region stands at 13.4 million coupled by an increased risk of severe and acute malnutrition. The updated figures will be provided in the next issue of the Food and Nutrition Security Update as soon as on-going assessments and analyses by member states are completed.