Late or erratic start of the season and below average rainfall will affect agriculture labor opportunities
Key Messages
The start of the 2015-16 agriculture season is likely to be delayed or erratic within the region. Based on the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum and national forecasts in Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Lesotho, Zambia, and South Africa, there is a high likelihood of below average rains for the October to December period. The beginning of cultivation and other farming activities are expected to be impacted by at late or erratic start of season and below average rains.
Poor households in maize deficit areas of Zimbabwe, Malawi, Madagascar, and Angola are relying entirely on market purchases for staple foods. Income earning opportunities for poor households are expected to be below normal during the October to December period due to the poor rains that are historically associated with El Niño events in the region. Some of the farm related activities that households rely on for cereal in-kind or cash for purchases usually include cultivation and weeding.
Food access among poor households in maize deficit areas is already constrained due to high food prices. As the lean period sets in across the region, access to food is expected to worsen. Poor households in the most affected parts of the region, including southern parts of Zimbabwe, Malawi, an Madagascar are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity outcomes in, the absence of humanitarian assistance. These outcomes are expected through March, until the 2015-16 harvest.