Significant food gaps expected in southern parts of the country due to drought conditions
Key Messages
Most households in the cereal surplus areas in the north are currently experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity outcomes and this is expected to continue through September. However, poor households in southern deficit areas experienced poor production this season due to the late start of season, erratic rains, followed by prolonged dry spells. However, rRural households in the south produced next to nothing this season, so they continue to rely on market purchases for their basic food needs and are currently Stressed (IPC Phase 2). In the absence of any assistance, households will likely be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from July through September.
In the absence of typical assistance flows, food security is expected to deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) between October 2015 and March 2016 in the southern region. Outcomes will be significantly better if typical assistance is delivered, though Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security would still be likely due to the above-average retail maize prices expected in the southern cereal-deficit areas.