Stressed and Crisis Acute food insecurity outcomes expected due to below-average harvests
KEY MESSAGES
Most countries across the region experienced poor seasonal rainfall characterized by a late start of the season, prolonged dry spells from mid- January through April, poorly distributed rains, and flooding.
Regional cereal production is expected to decrease by approximately, 12 and 22 percent from the fiveyear average and last year, respectively. Significant decreases are expected in southern parts of Zimbabwe, Malawi, Madagascar, Lesotho and South Africa.Most rural households across the region are consuming cereals from this year’s harvest and will likely experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity outcomes between April and June.
However, in southern parts of Zimbabwe, Madagascar, and Malawi rural households affected by poor rainfall performance will experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes during this period.From July to September, areas including southern and central Malawi, Madagascar, southern parts of Zambia, and parts of Lesotho will likely experience Stressed(IPC Phase 2) food security outcomes, while areas in southern Zimbabwe will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).The rest of the region will likely maintain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes.
Despite the estimated below-average maize harvests across the region, particularly in the region’s biggest cereal surplus producing countries (South Africa and Zambia), regional cereal supplies are likely to remain stable from April to September due to significant carryover stock from last year in both South Africa and Zambia.