Increased number of people projected to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) across the region
Key Messages
As the peak of the lean season continues, most countries in the region expect the main harvest to be delayed by up to a month. This extension of the lean season has resulted in atypically high demand on local markets among all household wealth groups and continued high food prices.
A number of countries in the region experienced increased rainfall from mid-February through March. These rains will likely improve pasture conditions and the availability of water for livestock. This late season moisture is too late for crop recovery in most drought-affected areas, but may benefit cropped areas that were planted very late in the season.
Although national crop estimates are still forthcoming, the region is anticipating a second consecutive year of below average maize supplies. Supplies for the 2016/17 consumption year will be significantly below average because of the El Niño related drought. National level cereal deficits are expected to be much higher than normal for the majority of countries. Staple prices continue to be above the five-year average in a number of countries facing an extended lean season period. In Mozambique and Malawi, February maize prices are more than double the five-year average across major monitored markets. Maize (white) prices on the SAFEX market also increased slightly between January and February.
In typical years households normally experience increased food availability from mid-March to April due to access to green foods and the start of the main harvests, however this year poor households in several parts of the region continue to face livelihood protection and food deficits. Poor households in Lesotho, southern Mozambique, southern Madagascar, and southwest Zambia are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and these outcomes are expected to continue through September due to the anticipated below-average harvests. Similar outcomes are expected in several other SADC countries, including Botswana, Namibia, Swaziland, and southern Angola.