Trend analysis
Southern Africa’s poorest rainfall season in decades, precipitated by the El Niño weather event, has resulted in long-term drought related damage in the region, which even the moderate to locally heavy rains received during March 2016 will not be likely to rectify. Since the end of March, most parts of the region received some consistent rains. The recent March SARCOF update forecasts increased chances of normal to above normal rains from April - June for DRC, Tanzania, parts of Mozambique, Northern parts of Zambia, Mozambique and Malawi. These rains will likely improve the current dire water security situation in the region and pasture conditions for livestock, but will not have much impact on crops as it is almost harvesting time. At the same time, isolated flood events have been reported across the region during what is supposed to be the peak of the rainfall season, affecting Angola, northern Mozambique, Tanzania and Malawi, DRC, South Africa, Mauritius and Madagascar. These floods will worsen humanitarian conditions.