Liquidity challenges expected to negatively impact livelihoods and food access countrywide
KEY MESSAGES
Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity outcomes are expected to continue among poor households in the south from June 2016 through January 2017. This is mainly due to very low 2015-16 crop harvests, increasing economic hardships, and anticipated below average livelihood options. Poor households in parts of the traditional maize-surplus areas in the north will mainly be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) because of livelihood protection gaps due to below average crop harvests as well as prevailing liquidity challenges.
Although the government has not yet released the official crop production report, maize production from the 2015-16 cropping season is estimated at levels ranging from 35 to 50 percent of the five-year average. This means that for the 2016-17 consumption year the estimated national cereal deficit will be over 1 million MT.
FEWS NET anticipates that the gap will be partly filled through international imports outside of the region since most of the southern Africa region is facing large maize production deficits resulting from El Niño-induced poor rains. Maize supplies on most markets across the country is expected to be lower than typical and prices are expected to be above average throughout the Outlook period.
- Since the start of the main harvest in April, the national economy has been impacted by critical cash shortages and this is negatively impacting basic economic and livelihood activities, including remittances, agricultural and non-agricultural labor, as well as self-employment opportunities in rural and urban areas. From early May, the government announced the implementation of a number of measures to address this situation.