Earlier and higher demand for food purchases in local markets contributes to atypically high staple prices
Key Messages
The impacts of last year’s El Niño induced drought continues to be felt as an increased numbers of households across the region are facing significant food and livelihood protection gaps from June to September. Significant number of households in affected parts of Zimbabwe, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Lesotho, and Swaziland continue to experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. Between October and January, these outcomes are expected to deteriorate even further as food prices peak and supplies become scarce during the peak lean season. Some areas that are currently Stressed (IPC Phase 2) will be in Crisis by the end of outlook period. Conditions in Madagascar are expected to worsen and an area in the southernmost region of the country will be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Small pockets of households in Emergency are also possible in southern Malawi and southern Zimbabwe.
Normally harvesting for the main season stretches into July in most countries, but this season it was almost complete by the end of June instead since households either had little crop to harvest following the drought or experienced total crop failure. Households that normally earn incomes for food purchases through harvesting labor have been seriously affected by below-average opportunities and wages. Similar decreases were observed for non-farm income activities like brick molding, grass sales, and gardening, since these livelihood strategies have been affected by poor rainfall performance as well. Because of limited income earning opportunities, poor farming households are unable to purchase all that is needed for their food needs.
With the exception of Zambia, every country in the region has a national cereal deficit this marketing year because of the drought. Market purchases remain the main source of staple in most countries, forcing poor households to extend their coping and livelihood strategies for the second consecutive year in some marginal producing areas. Maize grain prices are above the five-year average and June 2015 prices across all monitored countries, especially in Mozambique and Malawi. The main drivers of these increases are low local market supplies and unusually high consumer demand due to significant production decreases. Sub-national level information about the planning, funding, and likelihood of humanitarian assistance programs was not available for the national Outlook analyses in June, but is expected to become available and incorporated into national food security analyses within the next few months.
OUTLOOK BY COUNTRY
Malawi
The results of the Household Economy Approach (HEA) outcome analysis conducted by FEWS NET in May 2016 indicate that a large population of very poor and poor households, especially in the south, will experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity outcomes, requiring emergency assistance to protect livelihoods and cover food consumption gaps. By the October to January period, the situation will worsen and middle income, as well as poor, and very poor households will face Stressed and Crisis outcomes.
Average national prices for maize have stabilized but are still at a record high when compared to the five-year average. However, the stability is short-lived as prices in most key supply and consumer markets are reported to have started steeply increasing in June.
Typically, prices decline in the harvest and post-harvest period, but this year key markets are already registering increases.After experiencing drought due to one of the strongest El Niño events on record in the 2015/16 cropping season, early forecasts indicate that a La Niña event could result in average to above-average rainfall during the next cropping season in Malawi.
However, FEWS NET’s analysis explains that even a normal start to the 2016/17 cropping season is not expected to improve acute food insecurity outcomes because of the level of distress sales and crisis coping that households exhibited prior to the 2016 harvest and the extremely high maize prices projected for this year.
To learn more, read the complete June 2016 Malawi Food Security Outlook.
Mozambique
In the El Niño drought-affected areas in the South and parts of the central region, poor households are currently facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity as they face significant difficulty meeting their basic food needs. However, much of the rest of the population are able to meet their basic food needs due to the ongoing harvest in other areas of the central region and the North. The majority of households remain in None (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity.
Currently maize grain prices are 125 percent above the five-year average. They seasonally decreased with the start of the harvest, but are expected to rise from June 2016 to January 2017. The demand for substitute commodities, such as maize meal and rice, will also lead to price hikes. These prices will further limit purchasing power as households face limited earning opportunities.
Due to the significantly below-average harvest, the lean season will begin in August, about two months earlier than normal. Food stocks will continue to fall as second season crop production yields will be lower. In October, agricultural labor opportunities will increase with the start of the rainy season, which is expected to be average to above-average due to an anticipated La Niña. However, this could lead to moderate to severe flooding in January 2017.
In the most affected areas, from October to January 2017, poor households will expand their livelihood and coping strategies to meet their food needs. They are expected to intensify self-employment opportunities, consume wild foods, and will still require emergency food assistance because of their food consumption gaps. The poor and very poor will continue to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food security outcomes in January 2017, with needs likely to increase until the harvest in March 2017.
To learn more, read the complete June 2016 Mozambique Food Security Outlook.
Madagascar
As a result of an El Niño driven drought that affected the 2015/2016 agricultural season, main and off-season harvests were well below-average or failed, depending on the crop and zone, in parts of the south including Tsihombe, Ambovombe, southern part of Amboasary, Beloha, Bekily, Ampanihy coastal and Betioky Atsimo.
In worst affected pockets of Androy region, particularly in the municipalities of Anjampaly, Betanty, Antaritarika, and Marovato in Tsihombe and Tranovaho and Beabobo in Beloha, households are expected to face large food consumption gaps, in line with Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes between October and January. Humanitarian assistance will be needed to fill these food deficits, protect livelihoods, and prevent acute malnutrition. Other drought-affected areas of the south will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity.
In central and northern areas, a near-average or above-average rice harvest, depending on the zone, favorable cash crop prices, and normal livelihood strategies will enable seasonally normal food access. These areas will remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity throughout the scenario period.