SUMMARY
The bulk of Southern African Development Community (SADC) is likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall for most of the period October to December (OND) 2016 and the January to March (JFM) 2017. However, northernmost Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) northern Angola, southernmost of Tanzania, northern Mozambique, the islands states of Seychelles and eastern-most Madagascar are more likely to receive normal to below-normal rainfall most of the season.
THE TWENTIETH ANNUAL SOUTHERN AFRICA REGIONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM
The Twentieth Annual Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-20) was held in Harare, Zimbabwe 24 to 26 August 2016 to present a consensus outlook for the 2016/2017 rainfall season over the SADC region. Climate scientists from the SADC National Meteorological and/or Hydrological Services (NMHSs), the SADC Climate Services Centre (CSC) formulated this outlook. Additional inputs were acquired from other global climate prediction centres namely, European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF), Beijing Climate Center (BCC), Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), Météo-France and Bureau of Meteorology, Australia (BoM), International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Korea Meteorological Agency and UK Met Office. This outlook covers the major rainfall season from October 2016 to March 2017. The outlooks are presented in overlapping three-monthly periods as follows: October-November-December (OND); November-DecemberJanuary (NDJ); December-January-February (DJF); and January-February-March (JFM)
This Outlook is relevant only to seasonal (overlapping three-monthly) time-scales and relatively large areas and may not fully account for all factors that influence regional and national climate variability, such as local and month-to-month variations (intra-seasonal).
Users are strongly advised to contact the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services for interpretation of this Outlook, additional guidance and updates.
METHODOLOGY
Using statistical, other climate prediction schemes and expert interpretation, the climate scientists determined likelihoods of above-normal, normal and below-normal rainfall for each area (Figures 1 to 4) for overlapping there-monthly periods i.e. October-November-December (OND), November-December-January (NDJ); December-January-February (DJF); and January- February-March (JFM). Above-normal rainfall is defined as lying within the wettest third of recorded (30 year, that is, 1971 -2000 and 1981-2010 mean) rainfall amounts; below-normal is defined as within the driest third of rainfall amounts and normal is the middle third, centred on the climatological median. The climate scientists took into account oceanic and atmospheric factors that influence our climate over SADC region. In particular the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is foreseen to be shifting from the warm, through neutral to cold phase during the bulk of the rainfall season.
OUTLOOK
The period October to March is the main rainfall season over most of southern Africa. Owing to the differences and evolution patterns in the predominant rainfall-bearing systems, the rainy season has been subdivided into four overlapping three-month periods (i.e. OND, NDJ, DJF and JFM as defined above).
SPONSORSHIP
The Twentieth Annual Southern Africa Climate Outlook Forum was hosted by the Meteorological Services of Zimbabwe. Support was provided by Government of the Republic of Zimbabwe, SADC, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), African Development Bank, Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, and other partners.