Earlier depletion of household stocks and above-average food prices results in increasing number of households experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) Outcomes
Key Messages
With the exception of Zambia and Tanzania, market purchases remain the main source of staple in most countries, forcing poor households to extend their coping and livelihood strategies for the second consecutive year in some marginal producing areas. In several countries, including Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Lesotho, Madagascar, and Malawi middle income households are also beginning to experience food gaps due to the severity of drought earlier this year.
Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity outcomes are expected to continue in most areas across the region with significant populations in Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Malawi, Lesotho, and Mozambique. Other parts of the region are experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, but could potentially move into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in the coming months as food prices peak and supplies become scarce during the peak lean season. Some areas in Madagascar are expected to face large food consumption gaps, in line with Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes between October and January.
Prices continue to rise in most countries, with the largest and significant increases still experienced in Mozambique and Malawi. The main drivers of these increases are low local market supplies and unusually high consumer demand due to significant production decreases.
Second or winter season crop performance for Malawi and Mozambique was affected by the continued dryness since the 2015-16 seasonal drought and remains below average this year. Households in these countries normally consume second season production to offset any food deficits from the main harvest, but these supplies are mostly unavailable for households this year.